그리스 유로존 탈퇴?

CNN머니는 7일(현지시간) 전문가들을 인용해 그리스의 유로탈퇴 가능성이 높아지고 있다고 보도했다. 그러나 그리스의 유로 탈퇴는 이전에 우려했던 것과 달리 그리스 경제에 도움이 되고, 유로존이나 세계 경제에도 충격파가 없을 것으로 전망됐다고 전했다.

그리스 총선에서 구제금융 조건인 구조조정과 긴축에 반대하는 좌파가 원내 주요 세력으로 부상하면서 유로탈퇴 전망이 힘을 얻기 시작했다.

이번 총선에서 공산당인 급진좌파연합은 제2당이 되면서 연정 구성에 실패한 제1당 보수신민당을 대신해 연정을 통해 집권할 발판이 마련됐다.

정치 지형 변화를 씨티그룹은 그리스의 유로탈퇴 가능성 확대로 봤다.

씨티그룹은 보고서에서 수십년을 이어온 그리스 주요 정당들이 몰락한 이번 선거는 긴축에 대한 공공의 반발이 확산되고 있음을 보여주고 있다면서 그리스의 유로탈퇴 가능성을 최대 75%로 추산했다. 

그리스의 유로 탈퇴는 긴장이 고조되면서 의도적으로 진행되기보다는 그리스가 구제금융 조건 이행을 거부하고, 이에따라 국제통화기금(IMF), 유럽연합(EU), 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 등 이른바 구제금융 지원 '트로이카'가 2차 구제금융 집행을 중지하면서 진행될 가능성이 높다.

310억유로(약 46조원) 이상의 2차 지원금은 2·4분기 중 지원될 예정이지만 그리스가 긴축과 구조조정 약속을 이행해야 지원된다는 점을 트로이카는 재확인했다.

이 돈을 받지 못하면 그리스는 당장 만기가 돌아오는 채권을 갚을 수가 없다.

그리스는 채무불이행(디폴트)을 선언하거나 이전 자국 통화인 드라크마를 발행해 이를 갚을 수밖에 없게 된다. 이는 유로탈퇴를 의미한다. 

그리스의 유로탈퇴와 드라크마 부활은 그리스 경제에 도움이 될 것이란 전망도 나오고 있다.

그리스 통화가치가 떨어지면서 외국 관광객이 다시 늘고, 실질 임금이 올라 소비가 되살아날 수 있기 때문이다.

'닥터 둠' 누리엘 루비니 미국 뉴욕대 교수는 나아가 그리스가 탈퇴하면 포르투갈과 아일랜드가 그 뒤를 이을 수 있다면서 그러나 이들의 유로존 탈퇴는 세계 시장에 충격을 주지는 못한다고 지적했다.

루비니 교수는 "그리스나 포르투갈 같은 작은 국가가 탈퇴하면 질서 있는 분리 과정이 뒤따르게 될 것"이라고 예상했다.

그는 이어 "이탈리아나 스페인이 채무조정을 하거나 탈퇴하면 이는 유로 자체의 붕괴를 부를 것"이라면서도 그 가능성은 희박하다고 덧붙였다. 

The chances of Greece leaving the eurozone are rising, but it won’t be disruptive.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The results of the latest elections in Greece may make it more likely that the country will eventually leave the eurozone. But such an exit would probably be more orderly than Greece’s default, experts said.

Over the weekend, Greece was unable to pull together a cohesive government, as voters signaled their displeasure with the spate of harsh austerity measures thrust upon them.

That has increased the odds of a Greek exit from the eurozone. According to Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) analysts, the probably of a Greek exit, which they dubbed a “Grexit,” is now as high as 75%.

Citi analysts said the election results highlighted the sharpest drop in public support for mainstream parties in decades and “underscores rising public opposition against austerity.”

It also may throw into question the next round of bailout funding from the IMF, European Central Bank and European Union. More than €31 billion is slated to be disbursed during the quarter. If Greece fails to make progress, the so-called troika may withhold the money and Greece would run out of funding, say the analysts.

That could set the conditions for a eurozone exit in motion.

“[Greece] is not going to get pushed, but they might walk out,” Citi chief economist Willem Buiter said at last week’s Milken Institute Global Conference.

If Greece leaves the eurozone, presumably the drachma currency would make a comeback. That could prove to be a boon for the nation. Tourism could see a resurgence, especially if the exchange rates are favorable, and wages could be revived, boosting overall consumer spending.

Economist Nouriel Roubini thinks Portugal and Ireland may also find themselves restructuring their debt and could even wind up following Greece out the door, but none of that should prove disruptive to world markets.

“If a small country, like Greece or Portugal, exit, you can have an orderly divorce, but if that restructuring and/or exit hits Italy or Spain, effectively you could get a breakup of the eurozone,” Roubini said. But he added that’s an unlikely scenario.

Much of how things shake out will also depend on policy makers, who want to move forward in a constructive manner.

“It has been a bad idea to bet against policy makers ever since the fall of Lehman,” said Brevan Howard chief U.S. economist Jason Cummins. “You have to believe policy makers are working for the best intentions.”

He noted that policy makers played a key role in the United States’ bank bailouts, “fostering conditions so we could recover.” And in Europe, he pointed to the ECB’s long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs, as having helped European banks get their footing.

“Over the coming years, we should be prepared for the idea that policy makers will eventually do the right thing though it won’t always be a smooth path,” Cummins said.

And default is becoming a less scary scenario for some. “Greece defaulted and we’re still here,” said Cummins. “It’s not the end of life on earth as we know it.”

Most agreed that the eurozone could look quite different in a year’s time.

“The eurozone will not fall apart,” said UBS managing director Josef Stadler, at last week’s conference. “Two or three countries may leave the eurozone but not the entire 17.”

Stadler even said France and Germany could revisit the idea of eurobonds, a common debt security for all members of the eurozone.

Germany has been against the idea because even though it would drive down rates in troubled sovereign nations, Germany’s rates would potentially skyrocket. But Stadler sees it as the ultimate endgame to bring rates under control, particularly as borrowing costs for sovereign nations remain stubbornly high.

Beyond Greece, worries about Italy, which also dominated the latter part of 2011, have been trumped by Spain. Even though Spain has a lower amount of public debt as a percentage of GDP than other troubled European countries, Spain suffers from higher unemployment, more housing problems and weakening market confidence.

Pimco Chief Executive Mohamed El-Erian said he thinks the eurozone will hold together, “but it might be smaller.”

At last week’s conference, El-Erian told CNNMoney that he thinks the eurozone will emerge stronger over the next three to five years. “A lot of that has to do with Spain. But the good news is Spain is not Greece.” 

Article source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_topstories/~3/CuVvO1kLVBU/index.htm