EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary March 6, 2012
Posted on March 6,
2012 by Chad
Time is ticking away for the festering
pimple on the forehead of the world known as Greece. Dont get me wrong I have
nothing against Greece but what I am sure of is most every sane person would
agree that if we could have just went through the pain and popped it instead of
let it fester the healing would have begun long ago and the pain would be
diminishing by now. However it would seem the the crony banksters that run
things cant understand this analogy and would rather just continually put
a band-aid on said pimple and let it fester until its so infected that when it
does finally pop it has potential to create a huge scar on the face of the
world. Most likely because they are shielding their wealth from the
infection before the eruption happens. Go figure.
Now we are getting reports that the IIF
and its members have all but 1 agreed to take the hit and agree to the PSI deal
offered. As usual we have conflicting reports on just how big of a chunk of the
Greek bonds they collectively hold. This is from the FT.
”A
large grouping of private creditors agreed on Monday to take part in the
multibillion-euro Greek debt swap in a significant step forward for Athens as
the country struggles to avert a sovereign default. Twelve banks, insurers,
asset managers and hedge funds in the steering committee of bank lobby group
the Institute of International Finance said in a statement that they would take
part in the bond exchange. Members of the IIF steering committee include BNP
Paribas, Deutsche Bank, National Bank of Greece, Allianz and Greylock Capital
Management. A spokesman for the IIF said this represented a “substantial”
amount of the €206bn in Greek bonds held by the private sector that banks
managing the swap are trying to involve. Analysts estimate that
institutions represented by the IIF make up about 50 per cent of the private
sector bonds.”
Now I dont know about you but when I
hear the word analysists I get a little jittery thinking of just how these
folks come up with their numbers and release this data without putting their
name on the paper to take the fall when they are wrong. Of which quite often
they are. It reminds me of the old “4 out of 5 dentists surveyed recommends
Colgate”. Or was it Crest?
So all is well according to the FT. Well
lets get on over to Bloomberg for some corroboration. This is what they
had to say.
”Private
Investors Holding About 20% of Greek Debt to Join Swap…The 12 members of
the creditors’ steering committee that said today they would join in the
exchange have debt with a face value of about 40b euros ($53b), compared with
the 206b euros of Greek bonds in private hands, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg from company reports.”
And this is from Zero Hedge
As we said
earlier today, everyone is now scrambling to get some color on how many funds
are currently part of the Bingham group of ad hoc hold out creditors and how
many bonds they represent. If the above is even remotely indicative of holding
patterns 3 days ahead of the deadline, the PSI ain’t gonna happen.
For me being a Forex trader that only
trades the manipulation of the markets. I am always skeptical of such releases
of information. Since it is well known that the Smart Money will use these
releases as a tool in their manipulation tactics. The last thing I want to do
is follow the herd of sheeple. So lets look at the 2 releases a bit closer.
The FT said that the 12 banks and
insurers hold about 50% of the outstanding Greek bonds.
Ok that’s fine so if correct then they should hold roughly
100Bil Euros of the 206Bil outstanding right?
Then Bloomberg tells us that these 12
banks and insurers hold roughly 53Bil Euros of Greek debt at “face value”. What
gets me thinking here is are we talking about current face value? Of which is
roughly 50% or less than the full face value before the crisis. So here is my
question. Which face value is Bloomberg going by? The implication is that they
are using full face value since they are saying that it only represents 20% of
outstanding bonds. However if they are using current face value of the bonds at
50% or less and then in reality the FT was correct and they represent 50% of
the outstanding bonds of which is 103Bil Euros of the 206Bil. Seems strange to
me at this point. I wonder if Michael Bloomberg has a Euro long position hes
trying to add to. Two more days and we will have the answer.
The GBP/USD 1 hour chart chart shows we have only reached level 1 of the SM trend and should have 2 more to go. It is possible that is has moved off to level 2 already considering the 3 level intraday push starting from the end of the day Friday thru Monday but with the nice pullback during the London session yesterday I feel this is the higher probability trade. This is the pair I will be looking to trade today since it should have a longer run to level 3.
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